Monday, April 17, 2017

Trump, who is not from Georgia, records robocall accusing Democrats of outside support for candidate

Because there will be a special election for Congress in Georgia's district 6, Donald Trump recorded a robocall accusing the Democrats of using money from outside District 6 to support the Democratic candidate.

The thing is, Trump is NOT from Georgia's district 6 and most attack adds from the Republicans are paid using money from outside the district. Here's the content of the robocall according to CNN's Phil Mattingly:

Hello, this is president Donald Trump. Liberal Democrats from outside Georgia are spending millions of dollars trying to take your Republican Congressional seat away from you. Don't let them do it. Tomorrow there is a special election for Congress in Georgia. Only you can stop the super liberal Democrats and Nancy Pelosi's group, and in particular Jon Ossoff. If you don't vote tomorrow, Ossof will raise your taxes, destroy your healthcare, and flood our country with illegal immigrants. I need you to get out to the polls tomorrow, April 18th and vote Republican. That way we can cut spending and get our economy back on track and keep American safe, it's already happening. THere is only one way to stop the Washington liberals from taking your Congressional seat and your money and your safety; and that's by voting Republican for Congress tomorrow. Than you, I appreciate it.

Of course, the robocall is full of shit. Let's debunk it bullshit point by bullshit point:

1. As we already saw, Trump is also an outsider. So his first attack is hypocritical.

2. The Republicans control the House of Represntatives by a margin of 47 seats. One more seat won by the Democrats would mean a difference of 45 seats, with 195 for the Democrats and 240 for the Republicans. With that margin, Republicans would still be in control of the House.

3. It's impossible for a single Representative to "raise your taxes, destroy your healthcare, and flood our contry with illegal immigrants." Even if somehow this one Representative managed to get a majority in the House to vote for raising taxes or on health care reform, or on immigration reform, Trump can still veto the legislation. So here Trump is just plain lying, which is his speciality.

4. Speaking of immigrants: notice how Trump's recording appeals to racism and xenophobia. In other words, he's trying to entice the racists in the Republican Party to vote for the Republican candidate.

5. Wait a minute. Get the economy back on track? Didn't Trump say the economy was already fixed?

Now, since one more seat in the House doesn't change the balance of power in Congress, why would Trump agree to record that robocall? Well, perhaps because the Kansas district 4 election a few days ago showed a lot of the voters who voted from Trump didn't even care to vote for a Republican. In Kansas 4, Trump won by a margin of 27%. The Republican candidate in that special election won by a mere 7%, meaning the Republicans lost massive amounts of votes due to the unpopulatity of Donald Trump.

That means the Georgia 6 election could also mean a big embarrassment for Trump if the Republicans once again don't show up to vote as a protest against Trump.

And by the way: According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the Democratic candidate has the largest lead by far, with up to 45% of the preference in the polls. However --and this is an interesting point-- while there are 4 Republican candidates and none of them have more tham 17% in the polls, the combined votes of all of the Republican candidates adds up to more than 45%. This means two things:

1. Trump's robocall is not going to help any of the Republican candidates specifically, as it doesn't endorse any candidate in particular. That means the robocall is intended to boost Republican voter numbers overall. Which means Trump is trying in part to avoid another case of his voters not showing up to vote, thus evidencing Trump is losing voter support.

2. Trump is also trying to force a runoff election. He knows none of the Republican candidates has a chance to win against the Democrat in this election, but if the Democrat doesn't get more than 50% of the vote, a runoff is automatically triggered and the Democrat would have to face the combined votes of the 4 Republicans converging in a single candidate. Then the Republicans could win the House seat.

But again; the problem here is how many Republicans will actually show up to vote. It's difficult to say because of the fact that Trump is an unpopular president. But one thing's for sure: Trump seems to be scared enough about another electoral embarrassment to record a robocall full of lies.




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