Wednesday, April 19, 2017

DAY 90: Trump loses thousands of votes in Georgia 6 election

Once again Donald Trump lost thousands of votes una traditionally Republican district, this time in Georgia's district 6, which had a special election on April 18 to replace Tom Price's seat in the House of Representatives.

According to The New York Times, the results with 100% of the votes counted are:

Republicans (all candidates combined): 97,997 votes (51.02%)

Democrats (all candidates combined): 93,911 votes (48.89%)

Independents (all candidates combined): 176 votes (0.09%)

However, the results will automatically trigger a runoff election in June, as none of the many candidates got more than 50% of the vote individually.

Now, here's where things get interesting for the Democrats and pretty bad for Trump, because the first place individually was for the Democratic candidate, Jon Ossoff, who got 48.1% of the vote. The second place was for Republican Karen Handel, who got 19.8% of the vote.

This means Ossoff and Handel will be the only two candidates in the runoff election in June.

At first sight, this might indicate problems for the Democrats, as the Republicans got a combined 51.02% of the vote against 48.89% combined for the Democrats. Even if the 0.09% the Independents got wouldn't help the Democrats surpass the Republicans, right?

Well, like I said, here's where things get interesting because in this election Trump and the Republicans (and thus Trump) lost a whopping 51.27% of the votes they got in 2016. The Democrats also lost votes, but a lot less: only 24.82% of their 2016 results.

(You can corroborate the percentages by looking at the results from Georgia's district 6 here: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/63991/184321/en/summary.html)

That meant even though Trump recorded a robocall, and kept tweeting about the Georgia 6 election throughout the day, he still a massive 103,091 votes, while the Democrats only lost 31,006 votes.

"Well, that's because it's a special election and fewer people vote", some may say. But guess what? If we compare the votes with the results from the 2014 midterm, when traditionally there are fewer people voting, the Republicans are still losing 29.51% of their vote, while the Democrats are INCREASING their vote by 31.37%.

This means the Republicans could lose even more votes in the runoff election in may, while the Democrats could either keep their new votes (and win simply if 2% of the Republicans don't show up to vote), or lose fewer votes than the Republicans.

Because here's the thing: In this special election statistically more Democrats mobilized to to vote than Republicans. That means Republicans are abandoning Trump and Democrats are getting more organized to remove Republicans from power even in places traditionally Republican.

With these results, it is clear the Republicans are in deep trouble. All the Democrats need to win the Runoff election is two percentage points. That's about 4,100 voters, which should be easy, since about 31,000 Democrats didn't show up to vote in this election.

The Republicans, on the other hand, have a pretty big problem: Donald Trump could not get them to vote. The Republicans are basically not supporting Trump anymore. And as time goes by, even fewer Republicans will want to vote or to listen to Trump.

Regardless of what the outcome of the runoff election is, Trump lost this election. He lost over 100,000 votes even after he tried to get Republicans to vote. And the Democrats were more successful at mobilizing their voters.

This is happening 5 months after the presidential elections. In a mere 5 months Trump is losing massive amounts of votes even in places that are Republican.

That's how bad Trump is losing.

PS: By the way: No Democrat has won Georgia's district 6 since the Carter administration. That's right: in 40 years. And now, thanks to Trump, the Republicans might end up losing it.


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