Friday, March 10, 2017

The New York Times fact checked Sean Spicer's attack agains the CBO, and Spicer is lying

The Republicans prohibited the Congressional Budget Office from analyzing their Trumpcare act so the American people wouldn't know how crappy it is and how much it would cost them. And when the press confronted Sean Spicer about it, Spicer attacked the CBO for being wrong about the cost of Obamacare.

Well, The New York Times fact checked Spicer's claim and the newspaper found Spicer is full of shit.

This is what Spicer said:

“If you’re looking at the C.B.O. for accuracy, you’re looking in the wrong place. I mean, they were way, way off the last time in every aspect of how they scored and projected Obamacare.

“If you look at the number of people that they projected that would be on Obamacare, they are off by millions, but, the idea that that is any kind of authority based on the track record that occurred last time is a little far-fetched.”

Oh really?

This is what The New York Times found:

The agency, created in 1974, released its analysis of the completed version of the health care law in March 2010. It estimated 21 million people would be enrolled in public marketplaces by 2016. The year ended with 11.5 million enrollees.

But according to a 2015 report from the Commonwealth Fund, a health care research group, the C.B.O.’s projections for the Affordable Care Act were more in line with what actually happened than four other prominent analyses from 2010.

“Nobody always gets this stuff right,” said Sherry Glied, a health policy expert and the primary author of the report. “But if you believe it’s possible to make an assessment, they’re the best at that.”

And they added:

Forecasts are difficult, but outside of the health care law, the C.B.O.’s projections have landed closer to reality.

For example, the C.B.O. estimated that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act would cost $106 billion at the end of fiscal year 2009, 1 percent lower than the actual cost of $108 billion. And its prediction for the recovery act’s impact on the federal deficit, an increase of $4.7 billion by the end of the 2015 fiscal year, was also near the actual impact of $5 billion.

In short, the CBO's forecast was the most accurate of all the forecasts done on Obamacare. However, it did not take into account -because it was impossible to predict it- that the Supre Court would rule that Republican states could reject expanding the Medicaid expansion. Had they expanded it, millions more would've gotten health care.

So Spicer, I insist, is full of shit. The CBO IS accurate and that is why the Republicans didn't want the CBO to analyze Trumpcare. Because they knew the CBO would find Trumpcare would represent a huge cost to American taxpaayers and it would leave millions of people without insurance.


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