Monday, September 18, 2017

DAY 240: Trump's approval sunk in key swing states

Donald Trump's approval has sunk in key swing states, including some Rust Belt states.

Accordingot fivethirtyeight.com, these are some of the key swing states in which Trump has lost over 10 points in his approval ratings, a lot more than the margin he got in order to win the states:

Ohio: Lost 13 points. Won by 8 points. Net balance: Losing by 5 points.
Michigan: Lost 12 points. Won by less than one point. Net balance: Losing by nearly 13 points.
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania: Lost 10 points. Won by less than 1 point. Net balance: Losing by nearly 11 points.
Florida: Lost 8 points. Won by 1 point. Net balance: Losing by nearly 10 points.

Now, this doesn't mean conservative voters would not vote for Trump in these states if they have no other choice. But it does mean there's also a chance many of those conservative voters may simply stay home and not vote at all.

And with the exception of Ohio, all of the swing states were won by Trump by one point or less. Which makes it highly unlikely that Trump will win again in 2020.

That is, if the Democrats don't make the mistake of nominating somebody other than Bernie Sanders.


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