DAY 158: Trump celebrates Supreme Court Muslim ban "victory" that isn't

The Supreme Court announced today it will hear the case by the Trump Administration asking to suspend the block to its illegal Muslim ban. The court will hear arguments on the case and possibly rule on it in October. As a result, the SC agreed to partially allow a limited version of the ban until it rules on it.

The SC order will allow the Trump administration to apply the Muslim ban only to people with no proven ties or business with the United States. But it will not allow the Trump administration to apply the muslim ban to people who are already living in the US, who "have a credible claim of a bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the United States." Which means the muslim ban does not apply to people who have family, business dealings, medical dealings, or educational dealings with the US.

Donald Trump said immediately after that was “a clear victory for our national security.” The thing is, it is far from a victory for Trump. This is why:

First of all, three Supreme Court Justices (Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch and Samuel Alito, the most conservative ones) complained about the indication given by the majority of the justices on the limited stay of the lower court ruling. Clarence Thomas, for example, claimed that the way the Supreme Court's stay is written would prove "unworkable." I quote from The New York Times:

“I fear that the court’s remedy will prove unworkable,” Justice Thomas wrote. “Today’s compromise will burden executive officials with the task of deciding — on peril of contempt — whether individuals from the six affected nations who wish to enter the United States have a sufficient connection to a person or entity in this country.”

“The compromise also will invite a flood of litigation until this case is finally resolved on the merits, as parties and courts struggle to determine what exactly constitutes a ‘bona fide relationship,’ who precisely has a ‘credible claim’ to that relationship, and whether the claimed relationship was formed ‘simply to avoid’ ” the executive order, Justice Thomas wrote, quoting from the majority opinion.

What Thomas is saying is the stay ordered by the court will allow foreign nationals to sue the government over what constitutes a bona-fide relationship with a person or entity in the US. For example: if a pro-refugee organization invites refugees to come to the US prior to the Muslim ban, the refugees could claim they have a bona-fide relationship with an entity in the US, and if the Trump administration doesn't let them in, they can sue, and a federal court could block the Trump administration from prohibiting the entry of refugees, thus rendering the partial stay useless.

And there's one more thing: If the Supreme Court rules on the Muslim ban by October, that would render the entire Muslim ban moot. The reason why is because the Muslim ban applies a 90-day denial of entry to all people from six Muslim countries, supposedly so the Trump administration can "evaluate" the vetting procedures for immigrants and refugees. But by October, more than 90 days will pass, meaning by then the Trump administration will have no legal reason to ask for a muslim ban, since they will have the time they asked to "evaluate" vetting.

In short, the why the Supreme Court is handling the case gives immigrants a way to bypass the Muslim ban even under the limited stay the SC ordered. And by the time the court hears the case, the ban will be moot anyway, as the Trump administration now has the time it claimed it needed to evaluate vetting procedured for visas.

This means either of three things can happen:

A) The Supreme Court dismisses the case as moot (since the Trump administration already had its 90 days to review vetting procedures). Or...

B) Either the Supreme Court rules against the Muslim ban and Trump may not stop immigrants and refugees from Muslim countries to enter the US (only possible of Justice Anthony Kennedy votes against it). Or...

C) The Supreme Court will rule in favor of the Muslim ban, which by then will be irrelevant, since the 120 days the Trump Administration claimed it needed to evaluate vetting procedures will be over. And in the meantime, immigrants and refugees from Muslim countries will have a way to bypass the Muslim ban (and the most conservative Supreme Court Justices know it.)

So no, this is not a victory for Donald Trump. It is actually the Supreme Court's way to give him a pacifier for his tantrum over the block against the Muslim ban.

In the end it is clear Trump knew his travel ban would never pass the courts. He just wanted something for show for his conservative voters. The way the SC handled it Trump will be able to say it was a win for him, when in reality it isn't. So this may serve for Trump supporters to say they win, without actually being the case.