Friday, January 27, 2017

Trump lies (again) about Mexico over trade and border issues, and we debunk him

Donald Trump insisted on attacking Mexico on trade and border issues:



He lied. Twice. So we're going to debunk Trumo. Let's start with the border issue:

According to The Guardian, while in 2015 the United States deported 75,000 Central American immigrants, Mexico deported 165,000, which drastically reduced the flow of Central American immigrants to the United States, since about 400,000 Centra Americans try to cross the border into Mexico every year.

And that's not all. According to the Los Angeles Times, the amount of Central Americans deported by Mexico in 2015 increased 70% compared to 2014.

That, I'm afraid, is doing a lot more to stop the flow of undocumented immigrants into the United States than what the United States does. Mexico could simply allow Central Americans to cross its southern border without restriction and then the United States would be in serious trouble, as its capacity to deport immigrants --and the costs associated with the deportations-- would be ovrwhelmed pretty fast.

Now let's focus on the trade deficits Trump keeps talking about, that's misleading, since many of the goods the United States "imports" from Mexico are actually from American-based companies, including cars and auto parts manufactured by American companies in Mexico. By contrast, very few Mexican companies benefit from selling items made in the United States. As Market Watch explains:

Altogether, U.S.-owned companies and their affiliates employed 1.29 million Mexicans in 2015, generating $253 billion in sales, Bureau of Economic Analysis data show.

By contrast, Mexican firms operating in the U.S. employed just 78,000 workers and registered sales of $32.8 billion in 2015.

In short, for every dollar made by products from Mexican companies operating in the United States, American products from American companies operating in Mexico make almost 8 dollars.

That's not all. According to actual government figures, "Sales of services in Mexico by majority U.S.-owned affiliates were $43.4 billion in 2013 (latest data available), while sales of services in the United States by majority Mexico-owned firms were $7.5 billion."

That means that for every dollar a Mexican-owned company makes in the US selling services, American-owned companies services in Mexico make almost 6 dollars.

Or to put it another way, American companies make 6 to 8 times more money selling products and services in Mexico than Mexican companies selling products and services in the United States.

Oh, and the same official US government figures show that "U.S. goods exports to Mexico in 2015 were $236 billion, down 1.6% ($3.9 billion) from 2014 but up 97% from 2005. U.S. exports to Mexico are up 468% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). U.S. exports to Mexico account for 15.7% of overall U.S. exports in 2015."

You still think that's not a big benefit for American companies?

"Then how come there's a $58 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico?" some may ask. Well, because that "deficit" includes American products manufactured in Mexico that return to the US to be sold to American consumers. That's not a trade deficit. That's the return of American products into the United States after being manufactured in Mexico. It's exactly the same thing as your iPhone or your Android phone returning to the United States to be sold to you after being manufactured in China.

A true trade deficit would happen if the only imports from Mexico into the United States were from Mexican companies. That is not the case. Most are from American and Asian companies, particularly cars and auto parts.

Ask yourself this: If Mexico were doing so well with trade with the United States, why are so many undocumented immigrants from Mexico trying to cross the border into the United States?

Simple; because the ones who benefit from trade with Mexico are not Mexican companies, but American companies who get to manufacture their products cheaper and then sell at full price in the United States.

Being that the case, the ultimate beneficiary from trade with Mexico is the American consumers. Otherwise, that car you drive, or that TV you watch that was manufactured in Mexico would be a lot more expensive.

So, do you still think it's a good idea to build a wall and impose a 20% tax on products imported from Mexico?

PS: According to Reuters, the American economy grew 1.9% in the fourth quarter, below expectations of a 2.2% growth according to economists. But the reason why I'm mentioning the Reuters article is because of the reason why the economy didn't grow as much. The Reuters article mentions that the economy grew only 1.9% because of fewer exports of soybeans. If the economy can miss expectations by 0.3% just because of soybeans, imagine what will happen if ALL US exports decrease because of the US withdrawing from NAFTA.


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